Ukraine at the Crossroads

Ukraine has come to a crossroads of sorts, on one hand a free democratic society that includes all citizens, or on the other, succession by one part of the country, whose fears are escalated by language and cultural divides, as well as manipulation by the invisible, yet clearly understood hand of Russia’s Putin.

Western media should really not have been surprised by this turn of events, with the historical, political, cultural and geographic significance of Ukraine in the world.  Nor should we be as a country, though we should all be holding our collective breath and praying for peace rather than war; for commitment by the people to the people to trump personal ambition; and for citizens as a whole to understand the fears held throughout different factions of the country.

This is much more than a desire of part of Ukraine to enter and/or join negotiations with the EU, or to retreat to the perceived safeness of motherland Russia by others.  It is about more than proper elections, and about anti-corruption. It is about the wishes of all Ukrainians.

While much of us are familiar with Kyiv and the images, issues and goals of Euromaidan, looking ahead, it was clear there would be issues to come. There is no question, for anyone who believes otherwise, that Russia’s Putin will be content to allow Ukraine to move forward without his close ally President Viktor Yanukovych in power, and not attempt to seize his chance at further dissent, violence and a land grab.

For those cynical enough to believe Putin does not have any involvement in what is going on in Ukraine currently, you need only watch the news to realize that Russia is on the move and making inroads.

Crimea is an important geographical area for Russia, which includes naval bases, and even a Russian fleet off the coast of the Black Sea that has existed there post-war. Aside from the geographical importance of Crimea as a Russian naval base, there also exists its strategic location straddling the Black Sea as an important port of defence against other countries, such as defence against Asia, if needed. Practically, the location is also an excellent way to move weapons or item of trade to other countries if needed. There is also the small matter of a natural gas pipeline which is important to not only Ukraine, but Russia and the EU.

Finally, Crimea is the home of over 1.2 million ethnic Russians, and 97% of those are predominately Russian speaking (although most, if not all can speak Ukrainian), making up 58% of the population.  In Sevastopol, the major flashpoint of much of the action in Crimea, over 70% of the population is Russian. 

Indeed, the legislation passed yesterday by the fledgling interim government in Kyiv, removing Russian as an official language probably hardened more hearts, escalated more fears, and emboldened some actions by pro-Russian voices. Perhaps these are mistakes to be expected of a shaky interim government trying to heed Euromaidan’s wishes, but it was hardly a wise decision. 

Geographic importance coupled with political ambition and the ability of Putin to now claim he is protecting Russians of Ukraine, have led to the increase in Russian presence in Crimea, and the allocation of Russian jets along Crimea airspace. 

It is therefore, of little surprise that at 5:50 am this morning, an armed group of forces, with unidentified uniforms took control of the Crimean Parliament. A  Russian flag was posted soon after.

Today, the Crimean Parliament, most under duress, voted for a succession referendum to be conveniently held on the same say as elections, May 25. By all accounts, the vote took place 64/100, many of those votes coming with guns pointed at parliamentarian heads-literally. [Ukraine Interfax]

Tomorrow, it is announced, Yanukovych will give s press conference from Russia, stating his belief that he is still the rightful president. 

The sobering reality for the Ukraine’s interim government, is that Ukraine has no money. They may have no choice but to default on their debt without an IMF, EU or supportive country bailout. Ukraine’s governance made that clear today: that Yanukovych had robbed the state treasury and there was nothing left. As reality sets in that over 37 billion has been spent, and 70 billion has gone missing from the country over the past three years, considerable pressure will come to bear and this is what Putin is no doubt counting on.

As the Berkut continue to gather in Crimea, and the new head of the Crimean Regional government continues to state that Yanukovych is still president, and will take instructions from him, look for further flashpoints to come.

Ukraine is at a crossroads between moving forwards in time, and moving backwards. Ukraine’s national anthem proudly sings “Ukraine has not yet died” but there are tough decisions ahead that will require coalition building within the nation to ensure a way out of the darkness.