Bourassa,won by Emmanuel Dubourg, is a Liberal stronghold, so it should come as no surprise that a Liberal won the riding once again. Last held by by Denis Coderre, who recently gave up the seat to run successfully for Montreal mayor, held the riding through six successive elections since 1997.
What is more important to note about Bourassa is the commentary from various sources about the spectacularly low turnout last evening. Turnout was 26.2%, according to Elections Canada. Conservative spin has attempted to undermine the strength of the win by pointing out this low turnout. I suppose at first glance, it might seem unusually low given the strength of the outgoing Liberal member, and the proximity of Bourassa to Trudeau's own riding of Papineau. However, Bourassa also had lower turnout in the 2011 general election at 55.1% than the other three ridings discussed here. Their numbers last night still seem to be in line with the trend among the four by election ridings of around the 50% range less turnout then in general elections (or slightly higher), with the exception of Brandon-Souris which romped away last night with 44.7% turnout versus 57.5% in 2011.
Provencher, long a Conservative bastion of party faithful, remained Conservative with the election of Ted Falk. Held by Vic Toews since 2000, there was little surprise in Falk's win.Voter turnout was 33.6% versus 66.7% in 2011.
Toronto-Centre delivered the real drama with the two way media race, literally- between Liberal Chrystia Freeland and NDP Linda McQuaig in a fight to take over Bob Rae's seat. McQuaig made a good showing, holding her own at 36.3% versus Freeland's 48.9%. Voter turnout was 38% versus 62.9% in 2011.
Much has been made of the surprise of the night, Brandon-Souris, first for its surprisingly high turnout, and secondly, because of its status as Conservative stronghold that lost significant Conservative support. The night was a nail biter, with it coming down to the wire for Conservative Larry Maguire over Liberal Rolf Dinsdale by 391 votes. Voter turnout last night was 44.7% compared to 57.5% in 2011.
The real story of Brandon-Souris is how the Conservatives squandered voter goodwill, and thus increased the support of Liberals from a mere 5% to a whopping 42%. The spin from Conservative minded strategists is fairly simple-their base of supporters was angry over Senate scandals and allegations of interfering in the EDA nomination process for their candidate.
What's fairly obvious is that Liberal numbers are up across all four ridings. With permission and special thanks to Paul Fairie, professor of political science at the University of Calgary, results of the major parties in percentage points in 2011 and 2013:
the end results of change in 2013 over 2011 in percentage points:
results of raw votes, as compared to 2011 across the four ridings:
What last night really means to all of the major parties is that the political tide may be shifting and not to the official opposition. Results in western Conservative strongholds show that their voter support is weakening. Moreover, NDP gains made under Jack Layton have lost ground. The NDP's moderate gain in Toronto-Centre may well be attributed to the quality of the candidate, as opposed to an affiliation for the NDP itself,considering NDP numbers are down in the other three ridings.
Stripping away all the excuses on why who won and who lost last night, it appears that the winner of last night's political test were the Liberals. The party gained a substantial percentage of support at the expense of both the Conservatives and the NDP in the west, while making modest gains even in the so-called Liberal strongholds. In addition, the Liberals were the only party to make gains, however small, in raw voting data, while the Conservatives and NDP bled significant numbers.
Going forward, the spotlight will be all the brighter on Justin Trudeau, not because media and others have crowned him the heir apparent, but because his party has shown they are capable of building support at the expense of the other two major parties. It is worth noting that the Conservatives had to send in help from Jenni Byrne in the dying days of the Brandon-Souris campaign. Whether that contributed to the Conservative win, I'll leave it to you to consider.
Finally, while most pundits argue that Harper was the big loser here, I humbly suggest it was Muclair. The Conservatives have the excuse of the Senate scandal, the PMO, and Harper's aloofness with which to lick their wounds. Muclair, on the other hand, will be scrutinized as the great performer in the House, but unable to capitalize on the ground game. Having lost the ground game, the spotlight will be weaker, leaving him less opportunity to put the NDP forward as Canada's next viable government.
Let's see where the three leaders go from here.
JD
Coming up on the blog: Why Youth Don't Vote
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