Saturday, November 30, 2013
Follow the conversation on Twitter
Hit that follow @artofpoliticsca . Live tweets from Question Period (when I have the time), re-tweets from the political reporter beat, occasional commentary. and more. Have a great weekend!
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Question Period in Brief
The word of the day "testiphony"....
A slip up by Muclair in asking a question of the Goverment, tripping over the word testimony, slipping as "testiphony . This about about sums up the day in terms of answers provided mostly by Paul Calandra.
Memorable Moments:
Muclair: What is it about obeying the law this law and order government doesn't understand?
Muclair: why block if nothing to hide? [ testimony by Gerstein and Runia before committee]
Easter: Will the PM come clean? (on spying and the NSA) and "were there submarines in the fake lakes" "or wiretaps in the gazebos?"
Van Loan: "in many cases the best answer to a question is a question" and "it is not the job of you, as Speaker, to determine the quality of questions"
-[rising on May's point of order regarding rules in government answering the question it is being asked, as opposed to simply asking more questions in an effort to divert the original question- Speaker predictably rules he cannot rule on quality of questions]
Andrew Saxton: "Flaherty is the greatest finance minister in the world"
- [ in response to questions about blacked out personal per diem expenses]
Goodale's use of the term "fraud squad" in his questioning of why CPC Senators are blocking testimony from Deloitte partner Runia at Committee.
Clement: a T'was the Month before Christmas poem from the Treasury Board related to allowing federal employees, nay encouraging them, to decorate their offices/desks, etc in response to a clearly planted question. [when I get this little poem I'll be sure to post]
Sobering Thought of the Day from QP
There have been 3 suicides in 48 hours by Canadian soldiers. God bless their families, and others in the service at this difficult time.
There are currently 50 public inquiries ongoing with regards to Canadian soldier suicides. These have been going on without conclusion for 5 years.
Final Thoughts
Today's QP focus, as expected, remained on the Duffy audit scandal and Senate Committee's actions this morning in not only not having Gerstein or Runia, senior Deloitte partner who was contacted by Gerstein, appear before Committee,but actually blocking a motion by Liberal members of said committee from challenging this decision.
In addition, the big news of last night, that the Conservative government allowed NSA to spy on world leaders during the G20 summit held in Toronto, made for some pointed opposition questions with no answers.
Neither Harper nor Trudeau were in the House today, making QP a rough ride for Muclair, who not only didn't get any answers around Calandra's tap dance, but somehow wound up in the middle of Calandra's musings about hypothetical expense claims from Muclair while at Stornoway. On that issue, Calandra did a pretty good job of making those following QP wonder if there is a story there, having repeated himself at least four times making rebuttals to questions put forward by Muclair and the NDP.
Calandra also went on in other musings to imply that members of the Liberal caucus were under RCMP investigation, although not saying who. Time for Calandra to show us the "money" or be quiet. It remains to be seen if he will do either.
Twitterverse remained frustrated with Calandra's unending non answers to questions about why CPC Senators and presumably, the PM, are blocking Gerstein and Runia from appearing before Senate Committee.
Breaking news: LPC has put on notice motion to compel Runia to testify on Duffy audit. Debate on the motion will be next week.
Stay Tuned!
A slip up by Muclair in asking a question of the Goverment, tripping over the word testimony, slipping as "testiphony . This about about sums up the day in terms of answers provided mostly by Paul Calandra.
Memorable Moments:
Muclair: What is it about obeying the law this law and order government doesn't understand?
Muclair: why block if nothing to hide? [ testimony by Gerstein and Runia before committee]
Easter: Will the PM come clean? (on spying and the NSA) and "were there submarines in the fake lakes" "or wiretaps in the gazebos?"
Van Loan: "in many cases the best answer to a question is a question" and "it is not the job of you, as Speaker, to determine the quality of questions"
-[rising on May's point of order regarding rules in government answering the question it is being asked, as opposed to simply asking more questions in an effort to divert the original question- Speaker predictably rules he cannot rule on quality of questions]
Andrew Saxton: "Flaherty is the greatest finance minister in the world"
- [ in response to questions about blacked out personal per diem expenses]
Goodale's use of the term "fraud squad" in his questioning of why CPC Senators are blocking testimony from Deloitte partner Runia at Committee.
Clement: a T'was the Month before Christmas poem from the Treasury Board related to allowing federal employees, nay encouraging them, to decorate their offices/desks, etc in response to a clearly planted question. [when I get this little poem I'll be sure to post]
Sobering Thought of the Day from QP
There have been 3 suicides in 48 hours by Canadian soldiers. God bless their families, and others in the service at this difficult time.
There are currently 50 public inquiries ongoing with regards to Canadian soldier suicides. These have been going on without conclusion for 5 years.
Final Thoughts
Today's QP focus, as expected, remained on the Duffy audit scandal and Senate Committee's actions this morning in not only not having Gerstein or Runia, senior Deloitte partner who was contacted by Gerstein, appear before Committee,but actually blocking a motion by Liberal members of said committee from challenging this decision.
In addition, the big news of last night, that the Conservative government allowed NSA to spy on world leaders during the G20 summit held in Toronto, made for some pointed opposition questions with no answers.
Neither Harper nor Trudeau were in the House today, making QP a rough ride for Muclair, who not only didn't get any answers around Calandra's tap dance, but somehow wound up in the middle of Calandra's musings about hypothetical expense claims from Muclair while at Stornoway. On that issue, Calandra did a pretty good job of making those following QP wonder if there is a story there, having repeated himself at least four times making rebuttals to questions put forward by Muclair and the NDP.
Calandra also went on in other musings to imply that members of the Liberal caucus were under RCMP investigation, although not saying who. Time for Calandra to show us the "money" or be quiet. It remains to be seen if he will do either.
Twitterverse remained frustrated with Calandra's unending non answers to questions about why CPC Senators and presumably, the PM, are blocking Gerstein and Runia from appearing before Senate Committee.
Breaking news: LPC has put on notice motion to compel Runia to testify on Duffy audit. Debate on the motion will be next week.
Stay Tuned!
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Crunching the Numbers: What Last Night Really Means
Amid the spin offered by party strategists, polling firms and media, a plethora of ink has been dedicated to declaring winners and losers of last night's by-elections. Let's take a collective breath and look at the four ridings, how the numbers tallied up, and what last night really means for the parties.
Bourassa,won by Emmanuel Dubourg, is a Liberal stronghold, so it should come as no surprise that a Liberal won the riding once again. Last held by by Denis Coderre, who recently gave up the seat to run successfully for Montreal mayor, held the riding through six successive elections since 1997.
What is more important to note about Bourassa is the commentary from various sources about the spectacularly low turnout last evening. Turnout was 26.2%, according to Elections Canada. Conservative spin has attempted to undermine the strength of the win by pointing out this low turnout. I suppose at first glance, it might seem unusually low given the strength of the outgoing Liberal member, and the proximity of Bourassa to Trudeau's own riding of Papineau. However, Bourassa also had lower turnout in the 2011 general election at 55.1% than the other three ridings discussed here. Their numbers last night still seem to be in line with the trend among the four by election ridings of around the 50% range less turnout then in general elections (or slightly higher), with the exception of Brandon-Souris which romped away last night with 44.7% turnout versus 57.5% in 2011.
Provencher, long a Conservative bastion of party faithful, remained Conservative with the election of Ted Falk. Held by Vic Toews since 2000, there was little surprise in Falk's win.Voter turnout was 33.6% versus 66.7% in 2011.
Toronto-Centre delivered the real drama with the two way media race, literally- between Liberal Chrystia Freeland and NDP Linda McQuaig in a fight to take over Bob Rae's seat. McQuaig made a good showing, holding her own at 36.3% versus Freeland's 48.9%. Voter turnout was 38% versus 62.9% in 2011.
Much has been made of the surprise of the night, Brandon-Souris, first for its surprisingly high turnout, and secondly, because of its status as Conservative stronghold that lost significant Conservative support. The night was a nail biter, with it coming down to the wire for Conservative Larry Maguire over Liberal Rolf Dinsdale by 391 votes. Voter turnout last night was 44.7% compared to 57.5% in 2011.
The real story of Brandon-Souris is how the Conservatives squandered voter goodwill, and thus increased the support of Liberals from a mere 5% to a whopping 42%. The spin from Conservative minded strategists is fairly simple-their base of supporters was angry over Senate scandals and allegations of interfering in the EDA nomination process for their candidate.
What's fairly obvious is that Liberal numbers are up across all four ridings. With permission and special thanks to Paul Fairie, professor of political science at the University of Calgary, results of the major parties in percentage points in 2011 and 2013:
the end results of change in 2013 over 2011 in percentage points:
results of raw votes, as compared to 2011 across the four ridings:
What last night really means to all of the major parties is that the political tide may be shifting and not to the official opposition. Results in western Conservative strongholds show that their voter support is weakening. Moreover, NDP gains made under Jack Layton have lost ground. The NDP's moderate gain in Toronto-Centre may well be attributed to the quality of the candidate, as opposed to an affiliation for the NDP itself,considering NDP numbers are down in the other three ridings.
Stripping away all the excuses on why who won and who lost last night, it appears that the winner of last night's political test were the Liberals. The party gained a substantial percentage of support at the expense of both the Conservatives and the NDP in the west, while making modest gains even in the so-called Liberal strongholds. In addition, the Liberals were the only party to make gains, however small, in raw voting data, while the Conservatives and NDP bled significant numbers.
Going forward, the spotlight will be all the brighter on Justin Trudeau, not because media and others have crowned him the heir apparent, but because his party has shown they are capable of building support at the expense of the other two major parties. It is worth noting that the Conservatives had to send in help from Jenni Byrne in the dying days of the Brandon-Souris campaign. Whether that contributed to the Conservative win, I'll leave it to you to consider.
Finally, while most pundits argue that Harper was the big loser here, I humbly suggest it was Muclair. The Conservatives have the excuse of the Senate scandal, the PMO, and Harper's aloofness with which to lick their wounds. Muclair, on the other hand, will be scrutinized as the great performer in the House, but unable to capitalize on the ground game. Having lost the ground game, the spotlight will be weaker, leaving him less opportunity to put the NDP forward as Canada's next viable government.
Let's see where the three leaders go from here.
JD
Coming up on the blog: Why Youth Don't Vote
Bourassa,won by Emmanuel Dubourg, is a Liberal stronghold, so it should come as no surprise that a Liberal won the riding once again. Last held by by Denis Coderre, who recently gave up the seat to run successfully for Montreal mayor, held the riding through six successive elections since 1997.
What is more important to note about Bourassa is the commentary from various sources about the spectacularly low turnout last evening. Turnout was 26.2%, according to Elections Canada. Conservative spin has attempted to undermine the strength of the win by pointing out this low turnout. I suppose at first glance, it might seem unusually low given the strength of the outgoing Liberal member, and the proximity of Bourassa to Trudeau's own riding of Papineau. However, Bourassa also had lower turnout in the 2011 general election at 55.1% than the other three ridings discussed here. Their numbers last night still seem to be in line with the trend among the four by election ridings of around the 50% range less turnout then in general elections (or slightly higher), with the exception of Brandon-Souris which romped away last night with 44.7% turnout versus 57.5% in 2011.
Provencher, long a Conservative bastion of party faithful, remained Conservative with the election of Ted Falk. Held by Vic Toews since 2000, there was little surprise in Falk's win.Voter turnout was 33.6% versus 66.7% in 2011.
Toronto-Centre delivered the real drama with the two way media race, literally- between Liberal Chrystia Freeland and NDP Linda McQuaig in a fight to take over Bob Rae's seat. McQuaig made a good showing, holding her own at 36.3% versus Freeland's 48.9%. Voter turnout was 38% versus 62.9% in 2011.
Much has been made of the surprise of the night, Brandon-Souris, first for its surprisingly high turnout, and secondly, because of its status as Conservative stronghold that lost significant Conservative support. The night was a nail biter, with it coming down to the wire for Conservative Larry Maguire over Liberal Rolf Dinsdale by 391 votes. Voter turnout last night was 44.7% compared to 57.5% in 2011.
The real story of Brandon-Souris is how the Conservatives squandered voter goodwill, and thus increased the support of Liberals from a mere 5% to a whopping 42%. The spin from Conservative minded strategists is fairly simple-their base of supporters was angry over Senate scandals and allegations of interfering in the EDA nomination process for their candidate.
What's fairly obvious is that Liberal numbers are up across all four ridings. With permission and special thanks to Paul Fairie, professor of political science at the University of Calgary, results of the major parties in percentage points in 2011 and 2013:
the end results of change in 2013 over 2011 in percentage points:
results of raw votes, as compared to 2011 across the four ridings:
What last night really means to all of the major parties is that the political tide may be shifting and not to the official opposition. Results in western Conservative strongholds show that their voter support is weakening. Moreover, NDP gains made under Jack Layton have lost ground. The NDP's moderate gain in Toronto-Centre may well be attributed to the quality of the candidate, as opposed to an affiliation for the NDP itself,considering NDP numbers are down in the other three ridings.
Stripping away all the excuses on why who won and who lost last night, it appears that the winner of last night's political test were the Liberals. The party gained a substantial percentage of support at the expense of both the Conservatives and the NDP in the west, while making modest gains even in the so-called Liberal strongholds. In addition, the Liberals were the only party to make gains, however small, in raw voting data, while the Conservatives and NDP bled significant numbers.
Going forward, the spotlight will be all the brighter on Justin Trudeau, not because media and others have crowned him the heir apparent, but because his party has shown they are capable of building support at the expense of the other two major parties. It is worth noting that the Conservatives had to send in help from Jenni Byrne in the dying days of the Brandon-Souris campaign. Whether that contributed to the Conservative win, I'll leave it to you to consider.
Finally, while most pundits argue that Harper was the big loser here, I humbly suggest it was Muclair. The Conservatives have the excuse of the Senate scandal, the PMO, and Harper's aloofness with which to lick their wounds. Muclair, on the other hand, will be scrutinized as the great performer in the House, but unable to capitalize on the ground game. Having lost the ground game, the spotlight will be weaker, leaving him less opportunity to put the NDP forward as Canada's next viable government.
Let's see where the three leaders go from here.
JD
Coming up on the blog: Why Youth Don't Vote
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